Predictions...

Now that Parliament has been suspended by the Governor General, it will be interesting to see how this all works out. This will give everyone space to step back and breathe. We still have to deal with the issues though - just with a bit less emotion.





"The House the Coalition Built..."


Conservative voters have to deal with the fact that the Prime Minister, with seeking to cut off public funding for all parities, threw a controversy for the Opposition to rally around. It seems that he is almost unable to be non-partisan.
Having said that, these are the facts:
1. The NDP was plotting for some time with the traitorous BLOC members - the issue is not the economy, it's power.
2. The 'economic statement' was not the true issue - the funding cut and a lust for power was. If you actually read the statement, it contains a great deal of info and strategy to deal with the economy. Jack Layton just wants the chequebook of Canada.
3. Stephane Dion vowed not to go into a coalition with the NDP.
4. BLOC is founded on the principal of leaving Canada and will do nothing to benefit Canada except by accident. Yet, the coalition has given them virtual veto rights over anything important.
5. The coalition has no plan. They claim that they will need a couple of months to put one together. Where then do you get the $30 billion stimulus number? Did they pull that out of a hat or spin a roulette wheel?

When they come back, the coalition (if it still exists) will have to decide if they still want to defeat the government. I have a hunch that they won't...yet.

They'll pull back from the abyss until after the election campaign in May. With a new leader who'll be better at that than Dion, they'll have a much better chance of beating the Conservatives. Look for them to pull the pin almost immediately to get the post convention public opinion 'bounce'.

Here's my thoughts: If the Harper government falls in late January and goes on to win a majority, he's safe. If he doesn't come out of this with an election and majority this spring, the knives will begin to come out for him. Without a majority, even if he survives these current shenanigans and continues as a minority government PM, I believe that he'll be gone by next Christmas.

And here's the crux of the matter: If Harper cannot get a majority against a leader like Dion, it is doubtful that he'll be able to do so against an Ignatieff or Rae. It's easy to be the guy in charge when you are a "6" out of 10 on the leader scale and your opponent is a 2. However, when people have the option of another "6" or "7", will Harper be able to hang on? Will he be able to overcome his perceived baggage of 'controlling' 'cold' 'mean' 'overly partisan' etc.? I don't think so. I hope so, but I don't think so.